President Plausible Strikes Again


I know I am supposed to respect the office, if not the man. But the man has so diminished the office it is difficult to do. There is not a doubt in my mind that I have sent finer men than the current occupant of the White House to prison for substantial lengths of time.

I could go on listing his short comings as a President, and a man but he isn’t worth the effort. Instead I’m just going to refer to him as President Plausible. His performance last night more than earned this nickname. A lone gunman decided to go out in a blasé of glory for real or imagined slights that may never be known. Before the body count had been established, before the investigation has gained traction, President Plausible hit the air waves. He gives good speech. Not the content of his remarks but how he delivers them. The problem begins when one actually makes note of what he said. What follows are a series of lies, misstatements, half-truths that sound good but do not stand up to scrutiny. Just like listening to TV surgeons and TV detectives it sounds good to the uninitiated but is just so much gibberish to those in the know.

President Plausible stated that thoughts and prayers are no longer enough. Based on his all out assault on the First Amendment and those that hold religious beliefs, I can see where he is coming from. This may have been the only true belief he espoused all night.

In a twelve minute speech he referred to himself twenty-eight times that is once every twenty-five seconds. He reeled off a list of cities he had visited where similar incidents occurred. Notable by their absence was San Francisco where Kathryn Steinle was murdered by an illegal immigrant. Houston where Harris County Deputy Goforth was shot fifteen times, or New York where NYPD Officers Ramos and Liu were ambushed and murdered in their patrol car. Goforth, Ramos and Liu were all murdered by individuals expressing solidarity with the Black Lives Matter Crowd.

Unanswered at this point is the motivation of the shooter, his mental health, the weapons used, how the weapons were acquired but that didn’t stop President Plausible from identifying the problem as a lack of more comprehensive gun control. President Plausible pointed out that there were over 300 million guns in the United States. Investigation,thus far indicates that the shooter had four weapons, one identified only as a rifle. I’ll see your meaningless statistic and raise you. That means that 299,999,996 firearms were not used to commit a felony on an Oregon Community College Campus yesterday.

As he always does he uses the terms semi-automatic and automatic weapons interchangeably, President Plausible stated,”based on the high number of fatalities and injuries, it’s a good guess the Oregon shooting was carried out using an automatic or semi-automatic weapon.” President Plausible’s statement is an outright bad guess.”

No automatic weapons have been used in a mass shooting event in the United States.

President Plausible indicated in his remarks that “mass shootings” were so common that, “We’ve become numb to this.” Maybe he has, I thought he was using the plural but I suppose it could be the royal WE.

He intimated that this was a U.S. problem, according to statistics culled from Wikipedia during 2000-2013 the developed world experienced 86 active shooter/mass murder incidents. The European criteria for mass murder may differ from the criteria used by the FBI. Wikipedia divided mass murder incidents by type verses by location. All this means is that this is not a total apples to apples comparison.

According to an FBI study that documented “Active Shooter Incidents in the United States” they have tracked 160 incidents during the time period of 2000-2013. The data is from the FBI report.

A Study of 160 Active Shooter Incidents in the United States Between 2000 – 2013:a-study-of-active-shooter-incidents-in-the-u.s

Location Categories


Schools (Pre-K to 12),

16.9% (27)

Institutions of Higher Education, 7.5% (12)


Other Government Properties, 6.9% (11)


3.1% (5)UCATION, 24.4% (39OVERNMENT, 10.0% (16)OMMERCE, 45.6% (73)


Businesses, Open to pedestrian traffic, 27.5% (44)

Businesses, Closed to pedestrian traffic, 14.4% (23)


3.8% (6)

OPEN SPACE, 9.4% (15) RESIDENCES, 4.4% (7)


The study results identified 73 (45.6%) of 160 incidents that occurred in areas of commerce. These included businesses open to pedestrian traffic (44 [27.5%]), businesses closed to pedestrian traffic (23 [14.3%]), and malls (6 [3.8%]). These distinctions were made in order to determine whether the public was more at risk in areas where pedestrian traffic was likely.

Educational environments were identified as the second-largest location grouping (39 [24.4%]). These were further broken down as those occurring in schools (27 [16.9%], including two school board meetings) and IHEs (12 [7.5%]).

Other incidents, in descending order, were located in: Open spaces (15 [9.4%]); Government properties (16 [10.0%]);

Other (non-military) government properties (11 [6.9%])

Military properties (5 [3.1%]) Residences (7 [4.4%]); Houses of worship (6 [3.8%]); and Health care facilities (4 [2.5%]).

This study helps clarify the environment with regard to both the level of risk citizens face and the speed with which active shooter incidents occur.

A majority of the 160 incidents (90 [56.3%]) ended on the shooter’s initiative before the police arrived—sometimes when the shooter committed suicide or stopped shooting, and other times when the shooter fled the scene.

In 64 incidents where the duration of the incident could be ascertained, 44 (69.0%) of 64 incidents ended in 5 minutes or less, with 23 ending in 2 minutes or less.

The study identified 21 (13.1%) of 160 incidents where unarmed citizens made the selfless and deeply personal choices to face the danger of an active shooter. In those instances, the citizens safely and successfully disrupted the shootings.

In 11 of those 21 incidents, unarmed principals, teachers, other school staff and students confronted the shooters to end the threat.

In 10 incidents, citizens, working or shopping when the shootings began, successfully restrained shooters until police could arrive.

And in 6 other incidents, armed off-duty police officers, citizens, and security guards risked their lives to successfully end the threat. These actions likely saved the lives of students and others present.

There are several caveats in assessing these statistics. The language is precise and some incidents reported by other sources may not meet the criteria for reporting with tis document. When the report states that educational institutions are the second most common target, keep in mind that educational institutions are comprised of two sets schools and institute of Higher education. Only 7.5% of active shooter events took place ay institutions of higher learning.

Another consideration not stated in the study but based on personal experience and observation over thirty years is that offenders plan for success. They make a plan of action and amass the materials required to complete the task. They may choreograph the incident to the extent that they predict victim’s reactions, the offender satisfaction and reaction as the event transpires and their successful and triumphant escape or death in a blaze of glory. In short they are building a fantasy where they are the stars.

Keep in mind these active shooters are cowards with pretensions to be bullies. They have pretty much managed to screw up anything they every touched. Their true achilles heel is in the their interaction with other people. Any show of resistance by victims confronted by, in the shooters mind, overwhelming firepower is liable disrupt the attack and force a suicide or retreat. Most active shooter prevention programs are pointing out that active resistance is a viable response but is left to the institution as a policy matter. In 56.3% of the incident the active shooter terminated the event in an additional 13.1 % bystanders intervened. In other words 69.4% of the incidents were disrupted in some manner before the active shooter intended it to end. If an aggressive response when confronted by an active shooter is the best defense, and it seems that it is, then maybe the whole concept of gun free zones should be reevaluated.