Padding Statistics

Burt and Ernie

The way my mind works is that sometimes I look at apparently disparate things and see a common connection of theme. I blame this on the two greatest investigators of all time, Bert & Ernie who reduced the investigator’s conundrum to a single phrase. “Which one of these things aren’t like the other?” It is clear to me that all of the issues below are interrelated and in some cases mutually exclusive.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has sent an advisory letter to the Governor and legislature regarding the North Carolina Bathroom Law.  The letter misstates existing law and is an effort to intimidate the state. DOJ takes the stand that “trans” people are being discriminated against.  The first thought that comes to me is, just how many people are we talking about?  Keep this in mind we’ll get back to it. 

Next up  Obama Drinks the Koolaid Flint WaterThe “One” put in an appearance in Flint and allegedly drank the water.  It occurred to me that when EPA was not polluting Colorado Rivers they were promulgating standards for drinking water.  I have included those standards here EPA Drinking Water Standards Table.  You would think that since we are talking drinking water the standard for contaminants would be zero.  You would be wrong. EPA turns a blind eye to a variety of contaminants, as long as they don’t exceed what is acceptable.  Look at the list and keep those percentages rattling around in the back of your head.   

Next we visit the Transgender population.  Just how many of these mentally ill freaks are wandering around.  Nobody knows for sure and supporters advance all sorts of reasons why. One study in Massachusetts put the number at 0.5 another in California put it at 0.1. Using the surveys to get to the 0.3 percent estimate “takes a lot of statistical gymnastics,” Gates said. Gary Gates is an LGBT demographer at the University of California Los Angeles School of Law’s Williams Institute, which studies sexual orientation and gender identity law and public policy.

Keep in mind that Professor Paul McHugh of Johns Hopkins characterizes “transgender” as a mental illness related to body dysmorphic disorder. With treatment 98% of males and 88% of females accept the sex they were born with. A sizable percentage may switch back and forth before settling.  Kinda like that Mounds/Almond Joy commercial, “sometimes you feel like a nut, sometimes you don’t.” The bottom line, there is no good estimate as to how many people would fall into any of the myriad “trans” classifications.

Which brings us to all those percentages I asked you to keep in mind.  Sometimes a percentage difference is significant and sometimes it is meaningless. Sometimes a statistical difference is noted but cannot be duplicated in subsequent research.  All of this goes to the margin of error. Not being mathematically inclined myself I have included the following article.

How to Interpret the Margin of Error in Statistics

You’ve probably heard or seen results like this: “This statistical survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.” What does this mean? Most surveys are based on information collected from a sample of individuals, not the entire population (as a census would be). A certain amount of error is bound to occur — not in the sense of calculation error (although there may be some of that, too) but in the sense of sampling error, which is the error that occurs simply because the researchers aren’t asking everyone. The margin of error is supposed to measure the maximum amount by which the sample results are expected to differ from those of the actual population. Because the results of most survey questions can be reported in terms of percentages, the margin of error most often appears as a percentage, as well.

How do you interpret a margin of error? Suppose you know that 51% of people sampled say that they plan to vote for Ms. Calculation in the upcoming election. Now, projecting these results to the whole voting population, you would have to add and subtract the margin of error and give a range of possible results in order to have sufficient confidence that you’re bridging the gap between your sample and the population. Supposing a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, you would be pretty confident that between 48% (= 51% – 3%) and 54% (= 51% + 3%) of the population will vote for Ms. Calculation in the election, based on the sample results. In this case, Ms. Calculation may get slightly more or slightly less than the majority of votes and could either win or lose the election. This has become a familiar situation in recent years when the media want to report results on Election Night, but based on early exit polling results, the election is “too close to call.”

The margin of error measures accuracy; it does not measure the amount of bias that may be present. Results that look numerically scientific and precise don’t mean anything if they were collected in a biased way.

This brings me to the final game that liberals and leftists play.  They create coalitions, collectives, groups, and communities of groups that may or may not have common goals and lump them together.  The reality is, if you want to find a Bigot, with a capital “B”, one that would make Adolf Hitler’s heart go pitter patter, find a liberal.  There are no individuals, just groups;”put all those deviates together and we’ll call it LGB&T, that’ll give us 12 point market share at least. Do some research. You will find backlash on the Internet by Gay Males being lumped with transgender, (transvestites are okay).  All is not sweetness and light in the lesbian camp either.

The secret is, this isn’t about obtaining rights and protecting individuals.  The whole liberal agenda is to breed distrust and a sense of grievance wherever it may take hold.  This to demonstrate that what is in place doesn’t work and the only solution is the one they advocate and control. The past seven years have been about creating problems and implementing unworkable solutions to keep people off balance and unhappy.