The April, 2016 FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin has an interesting article that outlines a methodology for identifying the potential  for mass murders, terrorists and active shooters before they attack.  FBI — Perspective_ Identifying Warning Behaviors of the Individual Terrorist.  This is not a profile, but further investigation focusing on the warning behaviors discussed here, may justify concerns and indicate further investigation is warranted.

What does this mean? Every day in every FBI office the phone rings in a unit called the Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF).  The caller breathlessly informs the duty agent that their neighbor, cousin, uncle, guy down the block is a terrorist.  Further inquiry by the agent, how do you know? Brings out the #1 response, “I just do and don’t use my name.” Occasionally, the agent may receive marginally more helpful information such as “he’s a crotchety old bastard, he has guns, he thinks Republicans are too liberal and he talks to himself occasionally.” This could be me and I know I don’t pose a danger to the Republic. The hell of it is, some of these callers are right. Based on the information they provided we may never know until after the fact.  Culling information from these telephone calls is like trying to get a drink of water from a fire hydrant,  it can be done, but not very efficiently.

Terrorist (and mass murder and active shooter) are attention seeking and their objective can be either tactical or strategic. Traditional risk factors such as mental illness, drug abuse or past behavior may not be useful in assessing risks.

The FBI has come up with a new umbrella term Targeted Violence.  It is the decision to act violently against a particular person, group or institution, in a planned attack. Notice that it covers the political and purely criminal behavior. 

The FBI stepped back and identified Warning Behavior.  This behavior is not necessarily indicative of violence but when enough behaviors are triggered may serve to focus investigative resources.  

When I worked narcotics investigations I called it the Sesame Street, “Which one of these aren’t like the others” investigative technique.  

A description of the warning behaviors follows:

1. Pathway, conducting research, planning or preparation.
2. Fixation, pathological preoccupation with a person or cause to the extent that  it leads to a deterioration in relationships or occupational performance.
3. Identification adopting a warrior mentality and acquiring paraphernalia such as military, law enforcement or survivalist in nature. Identifying with a particular person or group.
4. Novel Aggression commits an act of violence that appears unrelated to any pathway behavior. Reassures the individual that they are capable of violence. (It is not unusual in gang initiations that the candidate commit a criminal act. There are anecdotal reports that left wing organizations of the 60’s and 70’s required candidates to perform group sex and homosexual acts and in general be promiscuous to weed out informers and law enforcement agents.)
5. Energy Burst rushing around to accomplish minor tasks, an indicator that an attack is imminent. (When your neighbor knocks on your door at 4 am and requests your help with a do it yourself home waxing kit and asks for a “Brazilian” so he can look good for the 72 virgins, it is time to call the FBI).
6. Leakage when planning an attack the terrorist will communicate that intent to a third party.  (There used to be a whorehouse in LaGrange, Texas.  The Sheriff in LaGrange made more bank robbery arrests year in and year out than any other Texas law enforcement agency. It seems that there was a requirement among bank robbers that as soon as they made their getaway they had to go to LaGrange, rent a whore and tell her all about his exploits.  The whore would tell the madam and the madam would tell the Sheriff and the rent got paid.)
7. Last Resort, typically the offender will indicate that his action is justified and represent a last resort and is justified.
8. Direct Communication, individual communicates a direct threat to law enforcement, just before a violent action.

Not all of these behaviors need be present. Am I giving away the candy store by divulging secret FBI shit? They did it themselves. Anybody who is the least bit sophisticated knows the FBI Bulletin is a resource.  

I have sat in the chair that the current JTTF agent occupies.  I know that 99% of the telephone calls are bullshit, but at the same time some of them are right.

I started telling the, “there’s a dope dealer on my street callers” that they were wasting my time and I was going to throw away their information as soon as I hung up with them, unless…

Then I started my pitch giving grandmothers, they were the best, lectures on criminal procedure, evidence, intelligence gathering and note taking.  I told what I needed and how they could supply the information and if they stayed in touch I would do what I could. Not all of the callers took me up on my offer.  But some did.  

It worked! Pretty soon I not only had the original caller but the neighbors on either side and across the street reporting. After the first arrest, which showed the community I was serious, I got more calls from new people.  Be damned if they didn’t have their information organized the way I had laid it out to previous callers. People want to help they just don’t know how.  Here’s hoping that the guy at JTTF will be the beneficiary of this article.